Early Free Agent Fantasy: I Don’t Know’s On Third

We have to burst your bubble right off the bat and say that David Wright is likely going to be extended by the Mets, so he won’t be available to the Cubs or any other team except in a ludicrous trade.  It’s no secret that the Cubs’ third baseman situation had been in flux in between Ron Santo and Aramis Ramirez, and with Rami gone, it’s basically gone to hell.  So 3B is obviously one of the spots that will need to be shored up for next season.  Even if the team is going to blow goats, you still have to field a semi-competent lineup, so we do have to look at this.  Guys like Kevin Youkilis might also be hard to imagine in a Cubs uniform, especially if the White Sox decide to re-sign him despite declining his 2013 option.  The following is a breakdown of the available 3B both in-house and on the recently opened free agent market.

Player	Age	2012	Career	2012 OPS+	Career OPS+	2012 WAR	Career WAR
Josh Vitters	24	.121/.193/.202	.121/.193/.202	9	9	-1.3	-1.3
Luis Valbuena	27	.219/.310/.340	.224/.292/.343	79	74	0.4	0.4
Ian Stewart	28	.201/.292/.335	.232/.319/.417	72	87	0	3.3
Jose Lopez	29	.246/.270/.356	.262/.292/.395	75	84	0.1	8.1
Alberto Gonzalez	30	.241/.241/.315	.242/.279/.317	44	61	0	-0.7
Drew Sutton	30	.254/.292/.393	.256/.309/.399	91	93	-0.4	0
Maicer Izturis	32	.256/.320/.315	.273/.337/.381	82	94	0.1	10.4
Jeff Keppinger	33	.325/.367/.439	.288/.337/.396	127	97	2.4	1.8
Kevin Youkilis	34	.235/.336/.409	.283/.384/.482	99	124	1.3	30.6
Eric Chavez	35	.281/.348/.496	.267/.343/.476	126	115	1.5	34
Orlando Hudson	35	.204/.261/.312	.273/.341/.412	57	97	-0.1	28.5
Ty Wigginton	35	.235/.314/.375	.263/.324/.438	85	99	-1.7	1.3
Brandon Inge	36	.218/.275/.383	.234/.303/.387	81	83	0.2	16.5
Adam Kennedy	37	.262/.345/.357	.272/.327/.384	95	88	0.2	18.2
Placido Polanco	37	.257/.302/.327	.299/.344/.403	70	96	0.3	38.9
Mark DeRosa	38	.188/.300/.247	.270/.340/.412	52	95	-0.8	8.2
Scott Rolen	38	.245/.318/.398	.281/.364/.490	88	122	0.3	66.6
Miguel Cairo	39	.187/.212/.280	.264/.314/.361	29	77	-1.4	5.8

As of now, there are 18 possible 3B (before we try to convert any struggling SS or 2B into 3B), three in-house (Stewart, Vitters, Valbuena) and 15 free agents.  The in-house guys are the youngest and least expensive, and if Stewart is non-tendered, he’ll get less than his projected arbitration figure of $2.3MM.  The in-house guys are going to stick with the Cubs (unless Stewart is cut loose) anyway so we can look at the free agents more closely.

We can group these guys into three general categories.

Yeah, Right!

Say no to Cairo.  No to DeRosa (sorry ladies).  Absolutely not to Brandon Inge, Adam Kennedy, Jose Lopez, Alberto Gonzalez, Drew Sutton, Orlando Hudson, and Ty Wigginton.  For lack of a better word, these guys all suck now and are very unlikely to be useful even on the Cubs.  Next!

Meh.

Jeff Keppinger showed that he was useful in his role on the Rays this season, but it’s likely some GM dumber than Jed Hoyer will overpay for him.  Unlikely to be signed by the Cubs.  Maicer Izturis is powerless and just kind of stands at 3B and plays defense.  He’s not your ideal corner infielder with power.

Old, Might Be Useful, But Likely Expensive

The guys left over are Kevin Youkilis, Eric Chavez, Placido Polanco, and Scott Rolen.  All have been excellent over the early parts of their careers.  All are now old as dirt and likely to get worse.  All are also earning relatively expensive contracts.  Polanco is also not a true 3B, only moving there to accommodate Chase Utley in Philly, so he doesn’t have the power to be truly valuable at the position.  Youk and Rolen are heading downhill while I don’t believe Chavez’s year is indicative of future production as it’s the best year he’s had for a long time.  While it would be wonderful to use Theo Epstein’s connection to bring Youk into the Cubs mix and have him be a mentor to the younger hitters, he’s probably going to want more money than the Cubs are willing to spend.

Verdict

If I were the Cubs I would probably stay away from the free agent market for 3B.  I would either bring Stewart back on a cheapy deal (after non-tender) to see what he has left, or just platoon Valbuena and Vitters since neither guy is going to be full-time starter caliber anyway.  However, Stewart has shown the most power of the three Cubs 3B candidates, though some of that has to be attributed to the launchpad that is Coors Field.  Stewart also has good patience at the plate even if he’s looked like crap.  So I’d give him a chance especially if it costs less than $2MM, which is chickenfeed to a baseball team.

The free agent market is full of guys who either suck, too old, or both.  At least see what the “kids” in the system can do.  Unless Kevin Youkilis wants to hang out on the North Side on a pay cut, but I don’t think that’s very likely at all.