The 2012 Cubs made an interesting run in early to mid May to find the team with a 15-20 record. This really did represent a high water mark for the franchise, as the Cubs promptly went on a 12 game losing streak. The Cubs would have a good July, the only month in which the team was over .500, but the die had been cast for the great sell off.

The 2013 Cubs enter today’s contest at 18-24. A win today would represent their third straight series win. It would also put them back to that five games under .500 mark that the 2012 team eperienced in May. It also has been a stretch that has seen the team as a whole play a lot better shown by their 7-4 record since May 5th. All of these things are true, but you have to remember that the 2012 team had a similar stretch at the start of May in which they went 7-5 to begin the month. Bad teams have good stretches.

Digging deeper than the records though indicates that maybe there is hope, very limited hope, for this team. Even after that good stretch the 2012 team had a -18 run differential after just 35 games. The expected record with that run differential was the Cubs 2012 record at that point of 15-20. The Cubs were performing at the rate they were suppose to following the mini hot streak they were on.

The 2013 Cubs, however, are doing a lot better in run differential. After 42 games, the Cubs run differential is -2, and that is good for an even 21-21 expected record. Baseball Prospectus goes beyond the most basic pythagorean record by creating 2nd and 3rd order winning percentages. Each of these marks indicate that the Cubs should be much better than they currently stand. The second order record has the Cubs at .526 winning percentage and a 3rd order winning percentage of .530. Only the Detroit Tigers are close to underplaying their expected record as much as the 2013 Cubs.

Now none of this means that the Cubs are due to get good luck and have their record equal their various expected records. However, it does point to this recent success as not being unsustainable. That is why today really marks a crossroad. If the Cubs can continue to play the way it has recently we could see a tem that continues to inch closer to the .500ish record I “predicted” at the start of the calendar year. If the Cubs played at their 3rd order expected winning percentage from here to the deadline it would mark a 34-30 stretch. That stretch would put the team record heading into July 31st at 52-54.

In the short term the Cubs have a chance to keep things rolling against a team overplaying its expected record by a fair margin in the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates are not a pushover, but this is a team that the Cubs have done well against the past couple of years. The Reds will be tough, and White Sox series are like Cardinals and Brewers where the games always seem to be crazy regardless of talent of teams. It is unlikely that the team will be .500 by the time the draft rolls around, but they could be in a spot where Scott Baker and a potential first round draft pick could be the midseason “buys” for a fringy wildcard contender. However, I doubt a 52-54 record would be good enough for the current front office to avoid selling off players like David DeJesus, Scott Feldman, Kevin Gregg, and others. Still if the Cubs continue at the rate they have it is going to make the decision to sell a lot tougher than many would have predicted at the start of the year.

We’ve seen tons of very passionate opinions on what the Cubs should do (or should have done) over the years since they were last in the postseason, and if you need a Cliffs Notes version, we have a couple of posts you can read.  The first is about what would happen if Mark Cuban owned the Cubs.  The second is just a silly Choose Your Own Adventure scenario.  But even if you don’t read those, you are all intelligent fans and can answer this simple question…

Vote, and then leave your rationale in the comments.  Thanks for playing!

So far this season, up to today’s game, Nate has put up a 118 OPS+, which is pretty awesome.  He plays mostly against right-handed pitching as his platoon splits are “meh” at best against southpaws over his career.  Wendy Thurm had this to say on the Twitterz:

Player A: .288/.323/.529 with 5 HRs. Player B: .298/.335/.512 with 7 HRs.Player A -1 yr deal for $2.2 m.Player B -1 yr deal for $13.8 m

— Wendy Thurm (@hangingsliders) May 18, 2013

Player A is Nate Schierholtz.Player B is Hunter Pence.

— Wendy Thurm (@hangingsliders) May 18, 2013

The thing I pointed out to Wendy was that Nate is indeed a platoon player (only 14 plate appearances against LHP this season so far) while Hunter Pence plays every day.  Pence also doesn’t have a grotesque platoon split like Nate does this season, but we’re only a quarter of the way through so this may change.  However, this is consistent with Pence’s career production.  Nate hasn’t been absolutely horrible against LHP if you look at his career line, but over the past couple seasons he’s only been used as a platoon guy because the splits really are that bad.  So there’s that going for Pence and his large contract.

Wendy makes a good point about the salary differences, and this is in no way shortchanging the Cubs for getting a good deal and also for Dale Sveum knowing how to maximize Nate Schierholtz’s production in situations where he is most likely to succeed.  But I felt like this should also be analyzed in the proper context.

American League Leaders

East – NY Yankees

Central – (tie) Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers

West – Texas Rangers

Wild cards – Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles

National League Leaders

East – Atlanta Braves

Central – STL Cardinals (of course )

West – SF Giants

Wild cards – Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates

Division Aggregate Records

AL East – 109-94, .537 overall, four teams at or above .500, three teams holding playoff spots

AL Central – 100-91, .524 overall, three teams at or above .500, two teams tied for division lead

AL West – 93-113, .451 overall, only the Rangers are above .500 and lead the division

The AL West probably suffering because the Astros suck so hard.

NL East – 89-112, .443 overall, two teams at or above .500, Nats on top

NL Central – 108-93, .537 overall, three teams at or above .500 and holding playoff spots

NL West – 103-99, .510 overall, three teams at or above .500, SF on top

Despite the hot starts for the Atlanta Braves and the Nats, the NL East is actually the worst division in the majors to this point by a thin margin.  The NL Central is on par with the AL East, probably because Toronto is so disappointing.  Of course, each team has only played about a quarter of their 162-game schedule, and there’s plenty of baseball to go.  Still a lot of fun to look at.

Haw haw! Yeah, this probably won’t last, but get your yuks in while you can!

In addition to a surprising non-last record and a fairly competitive team (tons of close games!) so far this season, the Cubs also find themselves with a surprising closer:

Even-keel, low-key Kevin Gregg a welcome addition to #Cubs. His nickname? “Kevin Gregg Maddux’ atmlb.com/10U7F5I via @cubs

— Carrie Muskat (@CarrieMuskat) May 17, 2013

I don’t know what the living equivalent of “rolling over in your grave” is but I’m guessing that Greg Maddux is gonna do it out of sight of the media and paparazzi. I do think it’s a clever nickname, even if we’re comparing an apple to a time bomb.

To get somewhat back on topic, I was playing around with the interactive thingamabob on the LA Times website re: payrolls.  The National League Central-leading Cardinals are a Matt Garza contract higher than the Cubs’ current payroll, while the Cincinnati Reds, who hold one of the wild cards so far, are just a tick behind the Cubs.  And while at some point the Cubs will likely have more money to play with than either the Cards or the Reds, there aren’t that many good deals to be had in the foreseeable future on the free agent market.

I recalled that Roobs did a really cool infographics article on roster construction this offseason.  There is a large mix of contributing factors to team success that allowed the ten contenders to get into the postseason, but aside from the Yankees, most teams got their talent from an avenue other than free agency.

While I don’t expect the Cubs to get super-lucky and draft the next Stephen Strasburg/Bryce Harper combo, the fact that you can find a ton of homegrown talent on clubs such as the Nationals, Cards and Reds means that there is a method to the madness to what the Cubs are trying to do now.  The Cards still have a core that includes Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina and a host of plug-and-play guys taking the place of Albert Pujols.  The Reds have guys like Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips.  As Roobs’ infographic shows, it’s not just enough to get talent via draft, you also have to make sound trades and signings.  Phillips was acquired via trade from the Indians, and Votto was a second-round pick by the Reds.  The Reds also traded from their deep prospect pool to acquire Shin-Soo Choo, who sucks as a center fielder but is an on-base machine and helping that offense chug along.

As the Cubs get a bit further away from the Red Sox model and more towards a Cardinals or Reds model, we can see some pieces falling into place.  Anthony Rizzo just got paid and has a pretty good future in Cubs pinstripes.  Starlin Castro is the same.  The farm is shaping up.  Maybe the Cubs don’t contend this year and they don’t sniff .500 again before the inevitable fire sale, but there are many things to look forward to as the front office works to out-Nats, out-Reds and out-Cards the competition.  It’s only a matter of time…if they do this right, of course.

Final: #IowaCubs 1, Tucson Padres 0. #Cubs starter Matt Garza tosses 6 shutout innings to get the win. #PCL

— Tommy Birch (@TommyBirch) May 17, 2013

#Cubs RHP Matt Garza: “I don’t need another start down here. There’s no reason for me to stay in the minor leagues.” #IowaCubs #PCL

— Tommy Birch (@TommyBirch) May 17, 2013

So if Matt Garza has his way, he could be back in the majors with the Cubs when they travel to Pittsburgh on Tuesday, which is exactly five days after tonight’s start in Iowa.  The guy feels good, is in good spirits, and wants to get out there and win something.  So let’s cheer him on!

Update: Seems our first instinct was correct.  Matt Garza will be back!

Garza to start Tuesday for #Cubs. Villanueva to pen

— Bruce Miles (@BruceMiles2112) May 18, 2013

5/13 vs. Rockies W 9-1

5/14 vs. Rockies L 4-9

5/15 vs. Rockies W 6-3

5/13- Travis Wood seems to be a different pitcher this season compared to last. He struggled early in Spring Training in 2012 and started off the season in Triple-A, but this season it’s been a whole different kind of Wood. He pitched his eighth consecutive quality start (first left-hander to do that since 1919) and also hit an RBI double. Wood held the Rockies to two hits and walked three giving up no runs over seven innings. There was plenty of offense although Wood didn’t need that much. Alfonso Soriano hit a two run homer, his 376^th. career homer, which ties him with Hall of Famer Carlton Fisk (69^th. all time list).  Starlin Castro, Nate Schierholtz and David DeJesus all drove in two runs each to back Wood and give the Cubs the 9-1 win.

5/14- I attended this game, my second of the season, and it wasn’t pretty. Carlos Villanueva has struggled his last two outings after a great start, therefore not making a very good case to stay in the Cubs’ rotation after Matt Garza returns. Carlos Villanueva allowed seven runs on twelve hits, including two home runs over five innings of work. On the other hand Rockies’ starter Jeff Francis was very efficient. He had great command, and threw a lot of first pitch strikes. He held the Cubs to one run on three hits and struck out seven in six innings. Rockies’ Carlos Gonzalez had a great night; he went 5-for-5, including two homers, which were career-highs for him. He seems to play very well against the Cubs though; he has a career .427 average against them. The only positive on the Cubs side was seeing Darwin Barney go 3-for-4 including a solo homer in the fifth and an RBI double in the ninth inning, but the Cubs couldn’t complete the comeback and came up short, thus ending their three game winning streak.

5/15- Jeff Samardzija finally got back in the win column after taking matters into his own hands. The righty held the Rockies to two runs and struck out seven over eight strong innings and also hit a two run homer to give the Cubs the lead. He got into a good rhythm early, needing only nine pitches to get through the first inning. This was the 24^th, quality start by a Chicago pitcher this season. Offensively, David DeJesus led off the game with a solo homer and the Rockies would tie it up in the second but Samardzija made sure it wouldn’t stay that way; Darwin Barney doubled and Samardzija hit the first pitch from former White Sox pitcher Jon Garland into the bleachers for his second career home run. His other homer was in 2009 vs. the Brewers. Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo added RBI singles and Alfonso Soriano added another run on a fielder’s choice. Kevin Gregg came in, in a non-save situation and made things interesting towards the end, but he was able to close it out without jeopardizing Samardzija’s win.

Looking Ahead

The!Cubs continue their home stand with three games against the Mets beginning tomorrow afternoon. Here are the probable pitchers and game details:

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs

Friday, May 17, 2013 @ 1:20 p.m. CT

Matt Harvey, RHP (4-0, 1.44 ERA) vs. Edwin Jackson, RHP (1-5, 6.02 ERA)

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs

Saturday, May 18, 2013 @ 12:05 p.m. CT

Jeremy Hefner, RHP (0-4, 4.61 ERA) vs. Scott Feldman, RHP (3-3, 2.53 ERA)

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs

Sunday, May 19, 2013 @ 1:20 p.m. CT

Dillon Gee, RHP (2-5, 6.13 ERA) vs. Travis Wood, LHP (4-2, 2.03 ERA)

Thank you so much for reading and as always, Go Cubs!

-Ivy

As we talked about briefly last night on our podcast, the Cubs and the city are moving forward with the renovation planning and the neighbors are resigning themselves to the fact that the Cubs will get their way.  I guess you can’t think otherwise these days, what with the Ricketts family paying for everything themselves and a powerful and influential mayor driving the bus with extra greasy wheels.

Looking good, lots of open space for street vendors, street fairs, etc. (Chicago Tribune, Chicago Cubs)

Late last night, the Tribune released an article with some new renderings of other proposed additions to the Wrigley site, including a new west-facing gate that would open towards Clark Street and their future Cubs Plaza.  Keep in mind that these are artistic renderings and don’t reflect what will exactly happen, but may be very close to what will be constructed eventually once the measures are approved.  Check out the picture of the Wrigley Field Cubs Plaza rendering in the featured pic above and the proposed gate below:

This will be over Clark Street. (Chicago Tribune, Chicago Cubs)

The sign is very similar to some signs I’ve seen around what my wife likes to call “Little Mexico” (predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods in the Southwest parts of Chicago) and also to the one in Chinatown:

Tasty food within.

The proposed plaza in the first page actually does remind me a lot of the open area in Chinatown Square where they have a lot of flea market-type activities. I think this is a really neat idea. I am particularly interested in the extra gate that will alleviate congestion within the stadium as we try to get out of the park after games, although I usually use the one on Addison and Sheffield to get back to the Red Line station. Even so, an additional exit will relax the flood of humanity towards my main exit, so I’m all for that.

Ivy is very anti-”Wave” at Wrigley, and I honestly don’t care because I don’t do the Wave and don’t begrudge those who do.  But rest assured that someone is thinking about tradition too:

We’re making one addendum to the Wrigley renovation plans: Machine gun turrets on the roof to take out people before they can start The Wave

— Not Tom Ricketts (@NotTomRicketts) May 16, 2013

Good luck with that, “Mr. Ricketts”

All of the observations from that game led me to this: fan etiquette. Here is a list of what to do, and what not to do in case you’re not aware. I am in no way saying I’m better or know more than anyone or anything of that sort. I have however been following baseball for a while and my main goal is to prevent you from making thoughtless errors that will affect the game I love and other knowledgeable fans. Avoiding these baseball faux pas will allow everyone to have a great time at the ballpark, after all, that’s what we’re all there for.

1.- This one is obvious, please take off your hat during the National Anthem, and ladies, that goes for you too. Don’t worry about how your hair looks without it on.

2.- Please be aware of the teams that are playing, and if you’re feeling daring, find out the starting lineup.

3.- Get to the game on time.

4.- Don’t start fights with fans of the opposing team. Not everyone roots for the same team you do.

5.- Don’t get up if it’s a pivotal point in the game, buying your nacho helmet can wait.

6.- Don’t leave until the game is over. Unless it’s an emergency.

7.- Never cheer if a player gets hurt, even if it’s from the opposing team.

8.- DON’T EVER DO THE WAVE. EVER.

9.- Don’t go to the game and gossip or “catch up” on how life has been. Please watch the game. Oh, and ladies, it’s also not time to have a photo shoot.

10.- I would also like to remind fans that in “Take Me Out to the Ball Game” it’s not “Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jacks” NO. It’s Cracker Jack.

11.- If you’re going to drink, fine, but make sure you can walk on your own by the end of the game.

12.- Don’t get carried away with obscenities, especially if there are kids around.

13.- Don’t interfere with a live ball. Unless you’re absolutely sure that it’s out of play.

14.- Ladies, please wear proper attire. A Sweater dress with kittens and heels is not appropriate (I have seen this before.)

15.- If there is a perfect game or a no-hitter happening, don’t say anything.

16.- Don’t smoke.

There are unwritten rules, which is mostly what I included, but the Cubs also have a set list of things that are prohibited, including some I have mentioned above.

This is what the Cubs have to say:

Guest Conduct: In conjunction with the Office of the Commissioner of Baseball, the Chicago Cubs are committed to keeping Wrigley Field a safe, comfortable and enjoyable environment for all fans. Our associates have been trained to proactively intervene where necessary to respond to unacceptable behavior such as:

• o Unruly behavior including but not limited to foul/abusive language or obscene/ threatening gestures, fighting, taunting or making threatening remarks;
• o Intoxication or other signs of impairment related to alcohol consumption or any illegal drug;
• o Smoking in any form, including electronic cigarettes;
• o Displays of affection not appropriate in a public, family setting;
• o Obscene or indecent clothing or signs;
• o Any disruption of the game or event, including throwing of objects or trespassing on the playing field or in other restricted areas;
• o Sitting in a location other than the guest’s ticketed seat; or
• o Entering the field of play as prohibited by Illinois law.

Any guest not adhering to the above code or behaving in an unruly manner may be subject to removal from Wrigley Field. The Chicago Cubs and Wrigley Field reserve the right to determine what is unruly or unacceptable behavior and to take any and all actions permitted by applicable law, including without limitation removal and prosecution.

If anyone is interfering with your enjoyment of Wrigley Field, please contact the nearest Wrigley Field Associate for assistance or text our fan assistance hotline at 88019, Keyword “FAN” and identify your seating location.

I know some people might be thinking that I am just being too picky but at the end of the day, the reason you go to the ballpark is to escape your life and have a great time. Just make sure that your idea of having a great time doesn’t interfere with someone else’s. I will say that sometimes I get a little impatient when fans don’t know baseball, and I try to understand that not everyone is a dork like me, but again, the point here is to try and if you’re going to show up at Wrigley just because you got a free ticket and just bash baseball or the Cubs, you might as well stay home. I expect every human to act with common courtesy.  To new fans of the game, you are welcomed, but just try not to do any of the things mentioned above and you’ll be good to go.  To the veteran fans, I’ll just say that you shouldn’t use your passion for the team as an excuse to disregard proper fan etiquette.

Thanks for reading and as always, Go Cubs!

-Ivy

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• INTROS
• EMAILZ
• NO EMAILZ
• Cubs Rotation post Matt Garza‘s eventual comeback
• A small preview of who the Cubs should give up at the deadline
• STEVEO-SAMA
• Baseball odyssey
• Changing landscapes
• Anthony Rizzo extension
• Jeff Samardzija, worth a long term deal?
• LOOGY research
• BAI STEVO-SAMA
• Alfonso Soriano talk with Rice
• Rec League Heroes
• BAI GUIZE